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China May Be The Wild Card In The Iranian Nukes Crisis

Posted by halthouse1 on Thursday, October 01, 2009 5:38:52 AM
Remember The Odd Couple Episode: The Hustler

Sure Shot Wilson with a hacking smokers cough: Does my answer matter?

Felix Unger: Your life may depend on it! 

 The answers out of Geneva starting today seem to carry some of the same weight. 

 The World Has Much To Lose By A Nuclear Armed Iran, But China Has Conflicting Needs

While face to face negotiations with the Iranians will most likely be a way for that regime to buy more time to work on completing its nuclear agenda, it would not even be worth sitting down at the table without Russia and China being serious partners.

With the disclosure of the second nuclear enrichment plant, the Russians, always an impediment to true action against Iran, may now be onboard with the United States at the Geneva meeting starting tomorrow. Whether they would actually abide by any of the sanctions that could be agreed upon is another story, but their rhetoric has changed.

China on the other hand has serious need for Iran. At the same time, as a sane nation, they recognize that an Iran with a nuclear weapons capability and the means to deliver them is not acceptable. At the present time China appears to be firm in the position that diplomacy is the first line of defense to be worked, sanctions second. And what sanctions would look like according to the Chinese would be another question.

China, as an economy still growing in the 6-8% a year range, has an insatiable need for oil. In 2009 they will probably import close to 15% of its oil from Iran, in addition to having heavy investments in Iranian oil fields. China is also an exporter of gasoline to Iran. A total embargo of gasoline is one of the sanctions that some feel would actually have bite, but do not expect China to agree to those. 

 For China to justify its position, Iran will say the things that the other participants want to hear, but in reality everyone knows that with a wink and a nod they could not be more disingenuous. 

With the position that China is likely to assume, the talks in Geneva may be starting with the United States having one hand tied behind our backs. Let's hope not.
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D-Day plus 65: Never Forget!

Posted by halthouse1 on Saturday, June 06, 2009 10:56:24 AM
The Political and Financial Markets Commentator (http://politicsandfinance.blogspot.com)
 

Saturday, June 6, 2009

D-Day plus 65: Never Forget!

Sixty Five Years Later, We Honor and Remember

From the hell on the beaches at Normandy and beyond on June 6, 1944, the beginning of the end of the Third Reich commenced. Had the invasion not succeeded, the fate and future of Europe and the world beyond would have been in great jeopardy.

D-Day by Zak McConnell

Watching the ceremony from Normandy today, listening to the spoken words and viewing the row upon row of heroes in their eternal resting places, imagining the horror faced by the soldiers that the picture above can't even begin to describe, seeing the beach and the waves today that were churning in heavy seas that day and the cliffs that hid German artillery and snipers, I can only thank these men who faced what I will most likely never face, and who acted with a level of bravery and courage that I can only hope that I would be able to match under the same circumstances.

As the years go by and fewer and fewer men and women remain who took part in D-Day, the liberation of France, of Europe and in the defeat of the Japanese, those who saved the world from madmen and regimes bent on world control and destruction, Thank You and God bless.

D-Day Cemetery Sphere: Related Content
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Pakistan: Country and World in Crisis

Posted by halthouse1 on Monday, May 04, 2009 10:38:10 AM

Monday, May 4, 2009

Pakistan: Country and World in Crisis

Pakistan: Country and World in Crisis

When the crisis and danger is finally recognized by The New York Times, it becomes even more apparent that the situation is in fact dire. The articles below had been written by me back to March, when the level of the problem in Pakistan became obvious, to all except the Obama administration which continues to tell us that the situation is being monitored and the Pakistani government is on top of things. Hillary Clinton remains the invisible Secretary of State.

"The officials emphasized that there was no reason to believe that the arsenal, most of which is south of the capital, Islamabad, faced an imminent threat."(see below)

Funny, as a concerned outside observer I feel there is an iminent threat.

The problem is that we do not really know who is in charge of the government, or more to the point who do those in charge of the government (and by extension the nukes) hold allegiance to. All this as Pakistan remains our "reluctant ally"


Guest Blog: Pakistan: Time for Contingency Plannin...
Pakistan, the Taliban and Islamabad: Is Anyone Out...
Does President Obama Know About the Goings On In P...
Yesterday Pakistan, Today North Korea
Is Anyone Keeping An Eye On Pakistan?

Pakistan Strife Raises U.S. Doubts on Nuclear Arms (New York Times)

By DAVID E. SANGER
Published: May 3, 2009
WASHINGTON — As the insurgency of the Taliban and Al Qaeda spreads in Pakistan, senior American officials say they are increasingly concerned about new vulnerabilities for Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, including the potential for militants to snatch a weapon in transport or to insert sympathizers into laboratories or fuel-production facilities.

The officials emphasized that there was no reason to believe that the arsenal, most of which is south of the capital, Islamabad, faced an imminent threat. President Obama said last week that he remained confident that keeping the country’s nuclear infrastructure secure was the top priority of Pakistan’s armed forces.

But the United States does not know where all of Pakistan’s nuclear sites are located, and its concerns have intensified in the last two weeks since the Taliban entered Buner, a district 60 miles from the capital. The spread of the insurgency has left American officials less willing to accept blanket assurances from Pakistan that the weapons are safe.

Pakistani officials have continued to deflect American requests for more details about the location and security of the country’s nuclear sites, the officials said.... Sphere: Related Content
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Pakistan: Country and World in Crisis

Posted by halthouse1 on Monday, May 04, 2009 10:35:15 AM

The Political and Financial Markets Commentator

Monday, May 4, 2009

Pakistan: Country and World in Crisis

Pakistan: Country and World in Crisis

When the crisis and danger is finally recognized by The New York Times, it becomes even more apparent that the situation is in fact dire. The articles below had been written by me back to March, when the level of the problem in Pakistan became obvious, to all except the Obama administration which continues to tell us that the situation is being monitored and the Pakistani government is on top of things. Hillary Clinton remains the invisible Secretary of State.

"The officials emphasized that there was no reason to believe that the arsenal, most of which is south of the capital, Islamabad, faced an imminent threat."(see below)

Funny, as a concerned outside observer I feel there is an iminent threat.

The problem is that we do not really know who is in charge of the government, or more to the point who do those in charge of the government (and by extension the nukes) hold allegiance to. All this as Pakistan remains our "reluctant ally"


Guest Blog: Pakistan: Time for Contingency Plannin...
Pakistan, the Taliban and Islamabad: Is Anyone Out...
Does President Obama Know About the Goings On In P...
Yesterday Pakistan, Today North Korea
Is Anyone Keeping An Eye On Pakistan?

Pakistan Strife Raises U.S. Doubts on Nuclear Arms (New York Times)

By DAVID E. SANGER
Published: May 3, 2009
WASHINGTON — As the insurgency of the Taliban and Al Qaeda spreads in Pakistan, senior American officials say they are increasingly concerned about new vulnerabilities for Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, including the potential for militants to snatch a weapon in transport or to insert sympathizers into laboratories or fuel-production facilities.

The officials emphasized that there was no reason to believe that the arsenal, most of which is south of the capital, Islamabad, faced an imminent threat. President Obama said last week that he remained confident that keeping the country’s nuclear infrastructure secure was the top priority of Pakistan’s armed forces.

But the United States does not know where all of Pakistan’s nuclear sites are located, and its concerns have intensified in the last two weeks since the Taliban entered Buner, a district 60 miles from the capital. The spread of the insurgency has left American officials less willing to accept blanket assurances from Pakistan that the weapons are safe.

Pakistani officials have continued to deflect American requests for more details about the location and security of the country’s nuclear sites, the officials said.... Sphere: Related Content
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What If Hawaii Was At Risk? What Would We Do?

Posted by halthouse1 on Tuesday, March 31, 2009 8:00:00 AM

From <a href="http://politicsandfinance.blogspot.com">The Political and Financial Markets Commentator</a>. Visit and sign-up for your free email or feed delivery.

<strong>What Would The United States Do If A Missile Out Of North Korea Was Headed Towards Hawaii? Let's Ask Secretary Of Defense Gates:</strong>
<strong></strong>
<span style="font-size:85%;">"Appearing on "Fox News Sunday," Gates said North Korea "probably will" fire the missile, prompting the host of the show to ask, "And there's nothing we can do about it?"</span>
<span style="font-size:85%;">
"No," Gates answered, according to an account of the interview on foxnews.com. "I would say we're not prepared to do anything about it."</span>
<span style="font-size:85%;">
Last week, Navy Adm. Timothy Keating, commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, said in an interview with ABC News that the U.S. military was "fully prepared" to shoot down the missile, if ordered to do so. But Gates said Sunday such a response was unlikely.</span>
<span style="font-size:85%;">
<strong>"I think if we had an aberrant missile, one that was headed for Hawaii, that looked like it was headed for Hawaii or something like that, we might consider it," Gates said. "But I don't think we have any plans to do anything like that at this point."</strong></span> (<a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/not-prepared-stop-north-korea/story.aspx?guid=%7B2F21B81C%2DF016%2D4240%2D9CC2%2DEE7833BADA71%7D">MarketWatch</a>)

<a title="Blue Hawaii by janruss, on Flickr" href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/janinerussell/2121859675/"><img height="328" alt="Blue Hawaii" src="http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2085/2121859675_0213b1e9a2.jpg" width="500" /></a>

Hmmmm. Has Hawaii heard about this? I would hope if a missile was headed for New York, the Pentagon would do more than just think about shooting it down. Is Hawaii expendable, or does this exchange indicate the state of our foreign policy?

Are we operating under benign neglect? Through policy by omission as opposed to commission?

Where, I ask again, is <strong>Secretary of State Clinton</strong> through all of this. Is she waiting at the United Nations to be ready to put in our complaint to the Security Council when North Korea test fires this missile? Is she personally observing the dismantling of our missile defense in Eastern Europe so that we can then rely on the Russians to take care of the nuclear threat in Iran?

It seems as if our foreign policy is going to be to react when God forbid something happens. I personally don't think that is a foreign policy. It is the old hope and pray. <strong>The Obama administration seems to want to go to the polar opposite point of the Bush administration in terms of foreign policy.</strong> They don't even want to say anything that may appear to be combative for fear of sounding less than diplomatic.

That stance has gotten us to the point of an imminent missile test firing and the planned trial of two journalists accused violating the North Korean border. As I have said the Obama administration is being tested, and so far the grade is not an A.

Maybe we can hurry up and get a quick U.N. Resolution.


<p><strong></strong></p>
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Anyone Got A Dollar?

Posted by halthouse1 on Thursday, March 26, 2009 5:00:00 AM
Hail The Mighty Dollar?
Why do you think George is looking so sad? Could it be something along the lines of a call out of some nations for a uniform global reserve currency other than the dollar? Closeup of a one dollar bill Now there is no real immediate risk to the dollar in it's current roll, and the calls out of countries like Russia and China are more of a warning than an actual expectation that a new currency could take the dollars place. While these countries were making those comments, EU Commissioner Joaquin Almuniathe was making the statement that he didn't see any need for "major structural changes in the role the dollar plays today as a major reserve currency".
 
The problem lies in the fact that China is the largest creditor of the United States and we rely heavily on them to buy our bonds that will help us to fund our deficit, keep interest rates low and help us to get out of recession. Earlier in the month Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao made statements to the effect that China was worried about their holdings of U.S. government debt, and that the United States had to do whatever it took to remain creditworthy.

These are strong statements indeed, and are a shot across our bow from our largest financier. I don't think that anyone would make statements like this lightly, and to me it represents a sharp commentary that needs to be heeded!

North Korea Update

WASHINGTON -North Korea is loading a Taepodong rocket on its east coast launch pad in anticipation of the launch of a communications satellite early next month, U.S. officials say. U.S. counterproliferation and intelligence officials have confirmed Japanese news reports of the expected launch between April 4 and 8.
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Obama Administration Naivete: Missile Defense Compromise

Posted by halthouse1 on Wednesday, March 04, 2009 6:09:22 AM

Obama Administration Naivete: Missile Defense Compromise

An Inside Look At The Defense Plans Of The Obama Administration

Taking the media back burner to the the economic nuclear winter that we are currently in, is the state of our foreign defense policy and our missile defense initiative plans in Eastern Europe. This is coupled with our desire, as well as the desire of most of the civilized world, to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons of it's own.

President Barack Obama sent a secret letter to Russian President Dmitri Medvedev weeks ago suggesting that we would halt development of the United States’ missile defense program in Eastern Europe if Russia helped resolve the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program.

Read the full story at The Political and Financial Markets Commentator at http://politicsandfinance.blogspot.com

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